Last summer, the unthinkable happened. On 19 August, the 56-metre Perini Navi sailing yacht Bayesian was hit by a freak weather incident while anchored in Porticello, Sicily, sinking in as little as 16 minutes. The disaster claimed the lives of seven people, including owner and British entrepreneur Michael Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah. Six months on and the shockwaves are yet to settle, with questions still swirling over the cause of one of the worst tragedies in superyacht history.
Answers are expected from the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB), who report on marine accidents either involving UK vessels or occurring in UK territorial waters. Bayesian, as a UK-flagged superyacht, falls into the former, though law firm Penningtons’ partner Sarah Allan – who specialises in yacht law and yachting casualties – tells BOAT International that it will be a while before the official report sees the light of day. "Our experience is that it can take years until reports are released," Allan says, "Firstly, because the MAIB will want to wait for the wreck to be lifted for inspection, and secondly, because interested parties must first be notified and consulted with on the findings. There's a lot of work that goes on in the background in investigating such a significant casualty."
MAIB's former chief inspector of marine accidents, Stephen Clinch, concurs, claiming he would be "surprised" to see the report released within the year. "This is not as straightforward as a fire, where you can climb on board and assess. A lot of work will be invested into the yacht's design, maybe doing tank tests or model tests, as well as an investigation into whether the approvals process was robust enough," he explains. "I think around 18 months would be a fair assumption."
There has been some speculation that an official report, when it comes, will prompt certain reforms, however Allan believes that a single incident is unlikely to bring about legislative change. "What we might see, depending on the findings on causation, is an official MCA guidance note." An apt example, Allan points out, is the 2023 note released by the MCA (Maritime & Coastguard Agency) following two flag state reports on yacht fires cause by lithium powered devices.
Whether legislation is forthcoming or not, Emma Deal, director of account management at MedAire, has observed a shift in the conversation. She believes that the sinking has underlined the need for stricter safety and security legislation, particularly when it comes to emergency response planning and the combination of immediate actions by the crew, communication with rescue services and deployment of safety equipment.
An international SOS company based in the UK and Phoenix, MedAire has accounts ranging from armed forces to cargo operation – and Deal has observed that the yachting industry has traditionally been "slow on the uptake" compared to other industries. "Safety and medical are so well regulated in industries such as aviation and commercial maritime. There's no question of how a crisis is going to be managed. Every little detail is taken care of, which is something you don't always see in yachting."
Clinch agreed that aviation was one of the first to fully embrace safety management systems, though qualified that the superyacht sector "is beginning to catch up".
When any accident happens, the spotlight is often directed at the crew. "I think there's a strong feeling of misrepresentation of what crew do when they're in an emergency situation," says Sam Thompson, director at management company JMS Yachting. "I know, being a seafarer myself, and having been in incredibly scary and dangerous situations, that the crew would have been doing their very best."
He continues: "When the MAIB report comes, I'm sure they'll find areas where the crew could have improved, or done something different. But making decisions under incredible pressure is different from someone sat in an armchair, reviewing the situation months down the line. And I'm sure this [disconnect in thinking] has had a massive mental effect on the crew."
The link between mental health and safety is often overlooked, Deal believes. "We've had an emotional support package as part of our MedAire membership for about 10 years now. Mental health is an investment needed to make sure you have a safely run boat, with well-trained crew who are emotionally stable. It's an area which shouldn't suffer from cut costs, but it does."
So, if policy is not forthcoming anytime soon, will the yachting industry see any changes? The prevailing thought seems to be that, without policy, any new measures will defer to individual judgement. "If there's no legislative change following Bayesian, then the incident will have little impact on the way things are run. Unless interest comes from the client," says Don Mckee, co-founder at superyacht recruitment agency YOA. "The priority should be educating owners, whether that is from the brokers, shipbuilders or project managers, so they're aware of the importance and benefits of adhering to safety systems on board."
Andrea Sacco, head of business development at Opacmare, which manufactures and designs yacht features including watertight doors and propeller-proof steps, thinks that Bayesian will result in more mindful owners. "I think now, [safety] will be a thought in the back of their minds, as well as the minds of new buyers. And the market will respond." The change will ultimately be a positive one, with the potential for investment in emerging safety technology, for example. "It may even become a competition of sorts, between owners. Whose yacht is safer?"
Of particular concern to owners is the impact of Bayesian on insurance premiums and the amount a person or business agrees to pay in exchange for coverage. But, as Pantaenius’ Michelle Van der Merwe explains, the yacht’s size means any dramatic increases are unlikely. "I think everyone thought it was going to have more of an impact than it did. Whilst it was a terrible tragedy, Bayesian was not a huge hull loss. There have been bigger."
While not a private vessel, one of the biggest and most infamous examples is the Costa Concordia, a cruise ship that foundered and partially sank in 2012 near Giglio Island, Italy. It took two years and approximately $1.2 billion to refloat the 290.2-metre vessel, which was completely scrapped in 2017. The resulting insurance claim used approximately 10 percent of the world’s annual marine hull premiums volume, which sits between four to five billion British pounds. In comparison, preliminary reports place Bayesian's salvage costs at £15 to 30 million, though Van der Merwe admits it is "hard to speculate on the [consequent] insurance claim".
Instead, the industry is likely to see increased interest in liability coverage as owners become more aware of the "worst case scenario". Van der Merwe confirms that Pantaenius has had "quite a few questions about personal accident claims in the months since Bayesian's sinking".
Ultimately though, the MAIB report will be the deciding factor in determining any impacts on yacht insurance. "If it's a design fault, then there might be more surveys done on yachts in the same category and size bracket, even particular builders," explains Van der Merwe. "But if there are crew factors involved, then we'd probably see specific insurance clauses around training and qualifications."
The timeline for the MAIB report depends on the salvage operation, the schedule for which remains uncertain. Works have already been postponed from January to April 2025, with authorities citing "operational complexities" such as poor weather as the reason for the delay.
Another complication is that the sinking of the Bayesian is a case with dual jurisdiction – between Italy, who is conducting the manslaughter probe and bulk of criminal investigation, and the UK, where the inquest into the victims' deaths is ongoing. It was at this inquest, held in Suffolk, where Superintendent Mike Brown of Suffolk Police confirmed that the UK Courts would be reliant on the Italian authorities and the MAIB for "further evidential material".
The tangible results – whether that be tighter legislation, an increase in safety procedures, or shifts in insurance – are likely to manifest years down the line. Until then, it appears any change will be incremental, case-by-case and at owners’ discretion.