Dates confirmed for salvage of sunken 56m sailing yacht Bayesian

The timeline for the recovery of the 56-metre Perini Navi sailing yacht Bayesian has been confirmed, with the process now scheduled to begin on 20 April. Work was initially slated for January but was ultimately postponed due to "complexity of operations", according to local Italian media.

Plans for the salvage officially began in December 2024, when a syndicate of insurers led by British Marine – which insures Bayesian, owned by the Lynch family – presented eight possible plans to the prosecutor's office in Termini Imerese, Sicily. While the chosen proposal is unconfirmed, one possible approach involved turning the vessel onto its keel and resurfacing it using cranes or "innovative buoyancy systems". 

The salvage poses significant logistical challenges for the parties involved, as the integrity of the yacht's structure is crucial to the ongoing investigation led by prosecutor Raffaele Cammarano. Once resurfaced, Bayesian will likely be transported to Palermo for forensic examination.

On 19 August 2024, Bayesian was hit by bad weather and sunk approximately 0.8 nautical miles off the coast of Porticello in Sicily, Italy. It is understood that the yacht was being used to celebrate Lynch's recent victory in a 13-year £8 billion fraud acquittal. Of the 22 persons on board, 15 were safely evacuated, with a search and rescue mission later recovering the bodies of seven people.

A manslaughter and homicide probe is underway in Italy, while in the UK, an inquest into the deaths of four victims of the Bayesian disaster has officially opened at The Coroner's Court in Ipswich. The cause of death for Michael Lynch has been attributed to "drowning", but the deaths of the other three parties are still under investigation.

As Superintendent Mike Brown of Suffolk Police confirmed that the court was reliant on both the Italian authorities and the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) for "further evidential material", there is concern that the inquest itself – also scheduled to resume in April 2025 – may be impacted by the salvage's delay.

When will Bayesian's salvage begin?

According to local Italian media, works are expected to begin on 20 April 2025 and last three weeks.

What does Bayesian's salvage involve?

Completing the initial survey

An inspection has been conducted to assess the condition of Bayesian, her precise location and potential risks related to the salvage. This is typically done with underwater sonar technology, divers or a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) which visually inspects the wreckage. From this, the salvage team – led by British Marine – created several proposals on how to best salvage Bayesian, considering factors such as risk reduction and overall cost.

Obtaining permits and approvals

Following the survey, a syndicate of insurers led by British Marine submitted their salvage plans to the authorities for review. From this, one proposal was approved.

Diving to the wreckage

The yacht is lying approximately 49 metres below the surface, which Nigel James, master mariner at Waves Group, told BOAT International is a "challenging depth" for divers. The "bottom time – which is the total time from the beginning of a descent to the beginning of an ascent – is very limited," James explained. "You're likely to need specialist equipment, like a saturation diving system, which will drive the cost up."

Removing the fuel

Bayesian is believed to have sunk with 18,000 litres of fuel on board, which may need to be removed before the hull can be salvaged. The usual solution with a submerged vessel is a "hot tap", which involves drilling into the tank, draining the pressurised fuel with a hose and pump, and then resealing the breach. The fuel would then be transported and disposed.

Refloating the hull

Eight possible plans were presented for Bayesian's salvage, including one that would utilise an "innovative buoyancy system". Though a safer (and more likely) route, according to Ruben Stephenson, director at RS Divers, will involve divers rigging the sailing yacht to a floating crane barge or "jack-up barge". "A controlled lift is really important," Stephenson explains. "And with cranes, you could lift Bayesian up inch by inch. It's not possible to achieve the same effect with airbags."

Either way, salvage experts concur that Bayesian's 72-metre mast – one of the largest masts in the world – will have to be separated from the hull before the salvage is officially attempted.